This one’s short and to the point:
John Ganz has a very interesting discussion in his Unpopular Opinion Substack of the developing Trump/DeSantis showdown for the GOP presidential nomination and the current spread of opinion on which of them might be the more dangerous president.
Here’s my short take:
Governor Ron DeSantis is the executive embodiment of the new SCOTUS judicial ideology and of the MAGA moment. DeSantis is determined to do by executive fiat pretty much what SCOTUS is on track to do via Judicial fiat (overturning established law and precedent to immediately have their way). And it’s what the MAGAs in Congress also want to do by fiat in the legislative arena. But, since they appear to have no clue how to do construct and pass legislation, they default to bombastic theatrical performance designed for the right-wing media sphere to Trump-up to true believers. And we can find exact parallels in many of the trifecta Republican states.
My take: DeSantis will be favored over Trump by the most influential coalition of conservatives because he understands exactly what “It” is that this authoritarian movement expects and has the opportunity to accomplish. Trump catalyzed a key populist component, but he is not so keyed-in to what the authoritarian “It” is about. Increasingly we should expect Trump to be cast as being narcissistically dysfunctional, and the subject of significant criminal, civil legal, and financial liabilities incompatible with a successful presidential campaign.
I have suggested in my previous post that we can understand this moment in our history as the evolution of a domestic Cold War. A hot “Civil War” is not a war that the militant MAGA crowd of ne’er do wells’ would show up for, let alone win. DeSantis is a model perfect head of state for building the sorts of walls that create enduring symbols and structures of national division based in facts on the ground and legal challenges — all designed to set-up enduring fights around core values and principles.
Perhaps this new home-grown American authoritarian incarnation might be known as MAGADeSantiSCOTUSism.
Whatever we call it, the 2024 presidential election cycle is shaping-up to be a GOP referendum on whether it will manage to elect a leader who can fully embody and competently lead an ambitious and pernicious anti-democratic agenda. My bet is on DeSantis. What’s yours?