Thankfully, an assassin’s bullets largely missed Trump, but they may still cause him to bury his re-election chances

It all depends on how he “Plays” this fraught moment. And play it he certainly will.

Yesterday’s attempted assassination of Donald Trump was horrifying. This should not happen in America — or anywhere else.

Reactions and emotions will play out in all sorts of ways over the next weeks and months. I can’t speak for how Trump’s supporters will ultimately process this event. But what I’m hearing from many democrats and democracy defenders is the sense that this attempted assassination will energize Trump and his supporters, and build his support among the undecided. Then, on the basis of both popular anger and general sympathy, Trump may well march right to re-election.

And, on top of this, there’s the fear that this attempt on Trump’s life will literally trigger retribution or copy-cat violence directed towards democrats, the media, and others of Trump’s long list of enemies.

While I do worry very much about how the more militant among his followers may act following last night’s violence, I strongly counsel against making despairing assumptions about Trump gaining new advantages in this race.

One thing that this assassination attempt shows in spades is that Trump is a major catalyst and lightening rod for violence and chaos. But, while many of his most ardent supporters have increasingly embraced normalizing intimidation and violence in our politics, most Americans have not.

Most Americans are rightly repulsed and disgusted — even ashamed — by what happened last night. They simply will not embrace more of the same — or a campaign promising threats and/or acts of violence, thuggery, and retribution.

A Pivotal Moment

This is a pivotal moment for Trump and his followers — and therefore for all of us.

Trump’s very first impulse last night, as he realized what had happened and was collecting himself to be shuffled off the stage by the Secret Service, was to gather himself together enough to stand up and angrily thrust his fist in the air and shout “Fight! Fight! Fight!

With all eyes about to be on the Republican National Convention, if Trump further embraces and elaborates upon this impulse, it would signal a deeply foreboding moment in American politics and history. It would clearly signal Trump’s transition from his authoritarian dog-whistling “shtick” into a transparent posture of supporting violence and chaos.

The vast majority of Americans will not endorse or embrace a thuggish, bloody politics or polity. They will not vote to install such a leader and his followers into what the Supreme Court has suddenly deemed almost absolute presidential power over our country and our future.

The Great Opportunity

There is a great opportunity in this moment both for Trump and all the rest of us.

If Trump uses this horrible act of violence as an opportunity to denounce political violence of any sort, then good for him and us. We can then hope for a more civilized competition of ideas about the future.

But, if Trump makes the mistake of choosing thuggery over civility; if he should keep yelling “Fight! Fight! Fight!” — and then sit back and watch approvingly while such horrifying thuggery unfolds — he and his movement will lose, just as he and they did on January 6th, 2021.

The great majority of Americans, being good and sensible people, will not embrace the path of violence, and chaos.

Regardless of what Trump or any of his allies or acolytes do, our opportunity is to bring together a super-majority of Americans around a politics of progress and prosperity — one that rejects violence and reflects the will of the vast majority of Americans and the American electorate.